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NumXL
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NumXL transforms your Microsoft®1 Excel® application into a first-class time series software and econometrics tool, offering the kind of statistical accuracy offered by the leading statistical packages. NumXL integrates natively with Excel, adding scores of econometric functions, a rich set of shortcuts, and intuitive user interfaces to guide you through the entire process.
Whether you have a simple homework problem or a large-scale business project, NumXL simplifies your efforts. It helps you reach your goal in the quickest, most thorough way possible.
NumXL keeps your data and results connected in Excel, letting you trace your calculations, add new data points or update an existing analysis, easily sharing your result with co-workers - and, yes, even with your boss.
The learning curve couldn't be easier: NumXL requires no programming or scripting. You will not have to move your data between any external programs.
You can also do any kind of ad-hoc analysis, as all of NumXL functions are accessible in your spreadsheet, and inside VBA environment should you choose to script.
What can NumXL do for me?
NumXL comes packed with scores of functions that you can easily access through the function wizard in Excel, as well as several wizards and shortcut UIs to facilitate the time series analysis process and automate the most common steps (e.g. summary stats, modeling, calibration, diagnosis, forecast, and more.)
General Statistics
Using the descriptive statistics and correlogram wizards, you can examine the data series summary and time series statistics with just a few clicks. The wizards come with an extensive set of statistical tests, from a simple one-sample test for mean to the more sophisticated Normality and ARCH effect tests. Furthermore, examining time dependency (auto correlation) in your sample data is only a few clicks away.
The wizards generate professionally organized tables and graphs summarizing all your calculations, ready to be included in your presentation. To make things even easier, all outputs include NumXL functions in their formula for connecting values with inputs, so you can edit, update or customize as you see fit, or re-run the wizard if you are feeling lazy.
ARMA/ARIMA
NumXL comes loaded with numerous functions to help you with any ARMA analysis task. You can start by specifying the model’s order using the ARMA wizard. The wizard will tie in model-related calculations – the Log-likelihood function, Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and residual diagnosis - with your input data. Once that is done, fitting the model parameters (calibration) is a snap: simply select the model and click on "calibration." The same goes for forecast: select the model table and click "forecast".
You can always edit the formulas in the output cells, get intermediate calculations (e.g. residuals, fitted mean) or use a NumXL function in your own formulas or VBA code if you so choose.
NumXL also natively supports ARMA, ARIMA, ARFIMA and seasonal ARIMA (e.g. AirLine) models.
ARCH/GARCH
Similar to ARMA/ARIMA, modeling a GARCH-type model is a breeze. Using the GARCH Wizard, you can generate a model output table with all coefficient values and related calculation (e.g. LLF and residual diagnosis). This table can be used to calibrate the model and predict out-of-sample values.
NumXL also supports ARCH/GARCH, exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and GARCH-in-mean (GARCH-M) models natively.
Furthermore, NumXL supports Gaussian, Student's t and GED-type innovations.
ARMA-GARCH mixture model
In the event you wish to model the time-varying conditional mean and the conditional volatility in one model, an ARMA-GARCH mixture model is in order. By combining the two models, the ARMA will follow the mean and pass the residuals to GARCH to follow the time varying variance.
ARMA-GARCH combo models support all the ARMA and GARCH models supported solo, including the non-Gaussian innovations.
Generalized Linear Model
Whether you have a logistics regression or a general linear model in mind, you can use the generalized linear model (GLM). NumXL uses the GLM wizard to help you specify the input data, link functions (e.g. probit, logit, log complement) and generate a model output table.
Similar to all of our models, the output model table is used to calibrate and perform out-of-sample forecasts.
Miscellaneous
Throughout our analysis, we implemented a few functions that did not fit in with any of those listed above: interpolation, extrapolation, excess kurtosis of a GED/Student’s t distribution, and more. We combined these orphan functions into a single category: Utilities.
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See Also
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