White Paper - U.S. Crude Reserve Modeling

[September 5,2012] This is our second issue of an ongoing series on select case studies. We'llⁱ use real financial data to construct models with the help of NumXLⁱ.

In this issue, we’ll examine the U.S. crude oil reserve stock level time series (i.e. crude oil inventories in the U.S. including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPRⁱ)).

We will model the dynamics in the crude oil stockpile (including SPR) level over time and project a forecast for the next 12 months.

Why do we care? The level of inventories helps investors estimate the prices for petroleum products (e.g. gasoline, heating oil, diesel, etc.). Like for other goods and services, prices for petroleum products are determined by supply and demand.

U.S. Crude Reserve Modeling